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On the evening of August 26, Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said at the steel market situation seminar of the steel network of Lanzhou Iron and Steel that the purchasing manager's index of the steel industry was 45.4 in July, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, still at 50 Below the critical point, it shows that the demand for steel is in a phased recovery, not a trend.
Cai Jin judged that the steel demand and prices will be mainly stable in the future. The bottom of the industry has passed and is in a recovery state, but it is still below the critical point of 50, which shows that the steel industry is in a stage of recovery, not a trend. Because steel plants are currently limiting production, it is only possible for demand to show accelerated growth to become a trend. To sum up, it is "stabilize demand, limit output, promote balance, and flatten prices."
According to the data from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the domestic steel market demand increased by 19.6% in July, which is already quite high. From the situation after September, the demand in the steel market is stable at more than 15%, or even a higher level. There are foundations and conditions.
According to the statistics of the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the current national steel inventory is 81 million tons, which includes steel mill finished product inventory, market inventory, consumer inventory and logistics link inventory, which is a decrease from the peak of about 90 million tons. The national steel inventory turnover period is 1.2 months, and the 25-day turnover period is the most reasonable.
Ma Li, director of information for Lange Steel, pointed out that the domestic steel market prices showed a trend of adjustment and failed to rise several times. However, the overall judgment is that under the gradual improvement of the macro policy, the steel price will not plummet in the short term, and it is less likely to return to the front line of 3800 yuan. It is expected to wait for the release of demand and the continued rebound of the stock market during the consolidation. The price rebounded again.
Cai Jin said that domestic steel production growth has dropped back to 9.7% in July, and has reached single digits, which is similar to the weakness of the previous two years, that is, the growth of supply has fallen below double digits, and can even be said to be at a low rate increase. In the long run, if steel production is lower than GDP growth, the market will contain an opportunity.
Cai Jin believes that from the perspective of investment in July, corporate investment is becoming more active, indicating that the endogenous growth momentum of the market is increasing. The growth rate of private investment in fixed asset investment in July was 31.3%, which was far higher than the average level of fixed asset investment. This investment is very foundational. "Enterprise investment requires efficiency, and efficiency requires continuity. Unlike government investment, after it is pulled up, the market is handed over to the enterprise to do. If it cannot be handed over, it will be very troublesome. Now that the enterprise is connected to the government baton, This is a very positive factor.
Excerpt from: Sina
